Non-Parametric Generalized Additive Models as a Tool for Evaluating Policy Interventions

نویسندگان

چکیده

The interrupted time series analysis is a quasi-experimental design used to evaluate the effectiveness of an intervention. Segmented linear regression models have been most carry out this analysis. However, they assume trend that may not be appropriate in many situations. In paper, we show how generalized additive (GAMs), non-parametric regression-based method, can useful accommodate nonlinear trends. An with simulated data carried assess performance both models. Data were from and non-linear (quadratic cubic) functions. results GAMs improve on segmented when non-linear, but also good linear. A real-life application where impact 2012 Spanish cost-sharing reforms pharmaceutical prescription analyzed. Seasonality indicator variable for stockpiling effect are included as explanatory variables. model shows fit data. GAM concludes hypothesis rejected. estimated level shift similar cumulative absolute number prescriptions lower GAM.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Mathematics

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['2227-7390']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/math9040299